金正日死了很多人拍手称快；很多人忧心忡忡；很多人运筹帷幄世界各大报纸上都出现了一幅让人哭笑不得的照片：朝鲜人民一大片一大片地哭倒在地这让很多中国人回想起了毛泽东去世的场面 人是个很奇怪的东西一方面人们痛恨独裁暴政，另一方面又对独裁暴君敬之如神这是大部分人的状态彻底痛恨和彻底信仰的都是少数在毛死后不几天就把他夫人抓起来，然后举国欢庆这就证明了真正信仰他如神的是少数毛死之前的四五天安门运动，紧紧依靠工人民兵的木棒就镇压下去了这证明了从蒙蔽中走出来的明白人也是少数 现在的朝鲜人民就处于中国一九七六年式的精神状况西方人不懂这种全民斯德哥尔摩综合症他们仅凭着表面现象就以为朝鲜人民仍然热爱着他们的第三代皇帝他们都跟着中共政府声明支持金正恩这个小皇孙，希望朝鲜的准皇帝体制能够稳定地接班这倒是从侧面证明了西方国家根本不了解他们的对手难怪他们永远输在小小的朝鲜独裁者手中 西方人到现在还在说是邓小平带领中国走出了毛泽东的模式，也希望金家皇朝的孙子能够带领朝鲜人民走出一个中共模式这是个极大的误解，但也可能是歪打正着的误解和当年的中国情况相似，朝鲜人民中早就在积聚着反抗的情绪，不缺乏人民领袖只是共产党体制下不可能集聚足够的资金搞组织，也没有外部的支援他们只能等待体制内的力量出面改革，结果也就只能落入新的圈套 中国人当年支持了党内的一派打倒了毛泽东的继承人但是华国锋不想改变毛泽东的体制，人民又只好支持邓小平打倒了华国锋所以中国错过了革命的机会，进入了邓小平的独裁专制时代邓小平很明智地满足了人民一半的愿望，又满足了西方大资本一半的愿望，创造了所谓的中国模式从而在全世界资本家联合起来的口号下，稳定了后毛泽东时代的一党专政 西方的资本家们希望朝鲜也出现另一个中共模式因为他们在中国的好运气眼看着就快要好到头了所以朝鲜一出现变化，他们就急不可耐的宣传引导舆论，说金三世会走上中国模式的道路他们并不希望朝鲜半岛会统一在民主自由的道路上两德统一曾经是他们的负担，那可不如一个中国模式的北朝鲜更有赚头这就是西方大企业和政客们的如意算盘，其中也包括韩国政客 但是朝鲜和中国不同朝鲜不是一个独立自主的国家它在很大程度上受到中共的控制，是中共在国际政治中制约美国、日本和韩国的一颗棋子中共控制朝鲜的手段就是养活着这个经济上不能独立的国家一旦朝鲜进行了中国模式的改革；一旦朝鲜有足够的财力养活自己，它为什么要破坏自己的国际信誉，去为中国的共产党火中取栗呢不用去西方留学，也没有人愿意扮演一个国际流氓的角色 金正日的时代比他的父亲更困难，这有点像中共的文革后期神话维持一代还可以，到第二代就走样了缺少神话支持的专制政治，就像中国的文革后期一样充满了不满情绪怠工和不负责任必然使得经济恶化，这又加重了人民的不满如何从这个恶性循环中解脱身边就有中国式改革的榜样，为什么不学呢这有三方面的原因 第一方面是中共式的改革能不能维持朝鲜劳动党的一党专政在早期还看不透中共只能靠自己，能不能都得试一试，否则就要垮台而金家政权还有依靠，可以从中国得到援助来维持这就不急着冒险了 另外，朝鲜面临着比中共更大的国内竞争南面的韩国不断地想统一朝鲜一旦统一，共产党很难在民主框架下重新掌权中国比台湾大得多，而且当时的台湾还没有民主化，对共产党不构成威胁朝鲜则正好相反，其实韩国比朝鲜大，韩国又已经民主化了，对人民的吸引力不能和台湾相比朝鲜一旦启动经济体制改革，必然被韩国所控制这是金家父子不敢改革的重要考虑 而最重要的是中共的态度无论从经济上还是安全上考虑，中共都是朝鲜的靠山而且随着援助的数量和质量的增加，朝鲜几乎成了中共的儿子国虽然金日成和金正日父子都有过小幅度的改革试探，但是开放的口子都只敢面向中共这除了更加依赖中共之外，没有产生改革所需要的结果 中共则很好地利用了金家父子的这种心态几十年经营下来，结果是朝鲜对中共言听计从，充当国际流氓的角色，为中共的战略目标火中取栗换句话说，就是替中国打国际政治的代理人战争朝鲜不断给国际社会找麻烦，迫使国际社会不得不找中国讨价还价而中国则从中获取政治利益在这个格局下，中共能允许朝鲜走中共模式的道路发展经济吗 谁也不愿意丢掉手中的王牌答案很明显朝鲜有没有机会从这个儿皇帝的格局中走出来呢我将在今后讨论这个问题 [next] On North Korea (part I): The Death of Kim Jong-il -- Wei Jingsheng Kim Jong Il is dead. Many people are clapping and cheering; a lot of people are worried; some people are strategizing. Dumbfounding photos emerged on the front pages of the world's major newspapers: a large number of the North Korean people crying down to the ground. This scene makes a lot of Chinese recall the scenes after Mao Zedong's death in 1976. Humans are a very strange creatures. On the one hand people hate tyranny and dictatorship, on the other hand they treat the tyrants and dictators like gods. This state is common to most people, though these who hate completely and those who worship these tyrants completely are just minorities. Shortly after Mao Zedong's death, his wife was arrested and the whole of China celebrated. This change proves that only a minority really worshiped Mao as the god. The April 5 Movement in 1976 before Mao's death was easily suppressed by the wood sticks in the hands of the workers militia for the government, so proving that the clear minded people who escaped being fooled were also a minority. Now the North Korean people are in the same type of mentality as the Chinese in 1976. The Westerners do not fully understand this Stockholm syndrome for a whole nation. They just rely on superficial phenomena to think that the North Korean people still love their third generation emperor. Following the action of the Chinese government, they also released statements in support of Kim Jong-un, the young grandson emperor, and expressed wishes that this quasi-emperor system of North Korea would have a steady succession. This support proves from the side that the Western countries do not understand their opponents at all. No wonder they always lose their battles in the hands of a small dictator in North Korea. Even now, some Westerners still say that Deng Xiaoping led China out of Mao Zedong's model, and they hope the grandson of the Kim Dynasty in North Korea will lead people into a China Model as well. This hope is a great misunderstanding, but it might be a misunderstanding that scores a lucky hit. Just similar to the situation in China then, there has been an accumulating mood of resistance within the North Koreans for a long time that is not lacking of their own leaders for the people. However, under the Communist system, it is impossible to gather enough funds to organize without external support. They can only wait for a reform initiative from within the Communist Party, and thus will only fall into a new trap. Back then, the Chinese people supported one faction within the Communist Party to overthrow Mao's successors. Hua Guofeng did not want to change Mao's system, so the people had to support Deng Xiaoping to overthrow Hua Guofeng. Thus, China missed the opportunity of revolution and entered the dictatorial era of Deng Xiaoping. Deng was very wise to meet half of the desires of the people, while meeting half of the desires of the big capitalists in the West, thus creating the so-called China Model. Under the slogan of "all the capitalists in the world united", Deng was able to stabilize the one-party dictatorship in the post-Mao era. Now, the Western capitalists hope North Korea will also become another China. That is because their good fortune in China is beginning to see the end. Therefore, as soon as there is a change in North Korea, they are eager to promote and guide public opinion to make the 3rd emperor in North Korea embark on the road of the China Model. They do not want the Korean peninsula unified on the road of democracy and freedom. The German reunification once was their burden. It was not as lucrative as North Korea would be in a China Model. This plan is the wishful thinking of Western big business and politicians, and also some South Korean politicians. But North Korea and China are different. North Korea is not an independent sovereign state that could survive on its own. It is largely controlled by China as a pawn to restrain the United States, Japan and South Korea in international politics. China controls North Korea by supporting this country that is not economically independent. Once North Korea conducts a China Model style reform, once it has enough financial strength to support itself, why should it undermine its international credibility by taking the high risk of doing things for the Chinese Communist Party? Even without studying abroad to learn, they will not be willing to play the role of an international rogue. The era of Kim Jong Il had been more difficult than under his father. It has been sort of like the late Cultural Revolution period in China. The fairy tale of Communism maybe believed for one generation, but it is hard to maintain by the second generation. Authoritarian politics that contradicts the fairy tale will create discontent just as it did in the later period of the Chinese Cultural Revolution. Sabotage and irresponsibility are bound deteriorate the economy, which in turn will increase the discontent among the people. How to escape from this vicious cycle? There is the Chinese-style reform nearby that can serve as an example, so why not? There are three reasons for not learning from that example. The first is depends on if the Chinese-style reforms can maintain the one-party Communist dictatorship of the Workers' Party of Korea. It is hard to tell in the early stages. Back then, the Chinese Communist Party was forced to try in an effort to avoid collapse. But the Kim dynasty still has its support and could maintain itself through the aid from China. Therefore, there is no anxiousness to take the risk. In addition, North Korea is facing more competition than China did. South Korea continues to want a unified Korea. Once unified, the Communist Party will have a very hard time maintaining its power in a democratic framework. China is much larger than Taiwan, and Taiwan was not democratic back in 1976, thus not a threat to the Chinese Communist Party. But North Korea is just the opposite. South Korea is more powerful than North Korea and is democratic as well, thus is much more attractive to people in North Korea than the attraction of Taiwan to Mainland Chinese back then. Should North Korea start economic reform, it is bound to be under the control of South Korea. This an important consideration causing the Kim father and son emperors to not dare to reform. Yet, the most important of all is the attitude of China. Either from economic or security considerations, China is backing North Korea. Moreover, with an increase of quality and quantity of the assistance, North Korea has become an adopted son to Communist China. Although both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il had modest attempts of reform, they only dared to open the crack of reform toward China. Thus, the result was not what they were seeking from the reform; they only became more dependent on China. The Chinese Communist Party has taken great advantage of this mentality of Emperor Kim and his son. After several decades of operation, the result has been that China keeps North Korea at heal to be the international rogue and to take high-risk actions for the Chinese Communist's strategic goals. In other words, North Korea is playing a proxy war on behalf of China in international politics. It continuously makes trouble for the international community, forcing it to make bargains with the Chinese Communist regime while China reaps the political benefits. In this situation, will China allow North Korea to develop its economy in the China Model? No one is willing to throw away a trump card in his or her hands. The answer is obvious. Does North Korea have the opportunity to walk away from its status of puppet emperor?